Understanding the root causes and the framework for societal change, and developing an appropriate historical perspective provide a critical foundation for looking forward in time. Upon this foundation we must build an observatory that allows us to look ahead with some measure of reliability. Not only is the market demand for certain skills and career fields changing, but also are our roles as work professionals and the ways we'll be managing our careers.
We'll no longer be able to succeed as career planners; we will need to become career strategists. And architects will be one of the leading runners in this race of changes. They can no longer sit down behind the desk struggling with pencils. They have to open themselves to a new line of technology, environment, and most importantly a new way of thinking. 21st century won't let anyone out of this category survive. Needless to say, computers are the core of this whole revolution. I'd like to discuss about the changes we can expect in the future, the urgent needs for the use of computers and their roles, and the responsibilities and a new philosophy of architects as a key futurist in 21st century.
Forecaster Marvin Cetron who prepared a new report listing 74 trends and forecasts affecting the United States says that his findings make him very optimistic about the future. I'd like to discuss some of his trends by putting them in certain categories.
1. The change in Market Environment.
Internationally, as the dollar declines against other currencies, American exports will grow rapidly.
This will finally begin to correct the U.S. balance-of trade deficit.
Domestically, small businesses structured as proprietorships or partnerships or as Subchapter S corporations
will be taxed at the same rate as individuals. Privatization is growing trend, with governments around the world
selling off public services. Globally, this means a transition from governmental to private ownership
of airlines, railroads, water, and electricity.
2. The revolution in science.
Artificial intelligence uses include robotics, machine vision, voice, recognition, speech synthesis, electronic
data processing, health and human services, administration, and airline pilot assistance. Supercomputers the size
of three-pound coffee cans, electric motors 75% smaller and lighter than those of today,
electrical storage facilities
with no heat loss, analyzers that can chart the interaction of brain cells, and 200-mph maglev trains that float on
magnetic cushions. Artificial blood will be on the market by 2000; it could eventually replace blood banks.
Memory-enhancing drugs should arrive in the 1990's. "Bloodless surgery" using advanced lasers will reduce patient trauma,
shorten hospital stays, and help lower medical costs.
3. The rapid growing in communication industry.
Global satellite communication will be available by 1997. Information technologies are promoting long-distance
communication as people hook up with the same commercial databases and computer network.
Two-way cable television will accelerate this process. Business TV is becoming big business.
4. The wide spread distribution and the use of computers.
Seventy percent of U.S. homes will have computers in 2001, compared with 30% now.
More than three-fourths will be equipped to permit communication with computers elsewhere.
Computers will become part of our environment, rather than just tools we use for specific tasks.
5. The fight against the destruction of the echo system.
Warming of the earth's atmosphere caused by the greenhouse effect will result in a worldwide rise in sea levels;
national governments will implement policies to reduce use of fuels producing carbon dioxide,
develop more-efficient energy technologies, and combat deforestation. "Clean" nuclear energy will appear after 2010.
Ocean-wave power plants will produce both electricity and fresh water for island communities.
6. The change in work force.
With the evolution of new materials and production technology-CAD, CAM, robotics, and semiconductors-the few remaining
unskilled and semiskilled jobs in manufacturing will disappear.
One out of six workers belonged to an ethnic minority in 1990's. By 2000, they will be one out of three.
The trends above are very promising. No gloomy sides.
In a sense that they are focused on the bright possibilities and ensued the a lot of
hard-to-deal problems - the need for a better living, frequently changing market situation, pollution,
haziness for the future, and son on - they remind me of the idealistic socialism founded by Sansimon & Purie which is
history now. Being an optimist doesn't necessarily mean that everything someone expect is rosy. Rather,
it demands a keen analysis about the present circumstances and an acute forecast embracing both bright and dark sides.
Only after that, the ground for true expectation is made.
Therefore, I'd like to point out several weakness of the trends of Marvin Cetron.
1. Isn't three any possibility of diminishing economic power of the U.S.A caused by all-raced immigrants rushing
toward the American boarder?
2. Can we ignore the side-effects of the science revolution? For example,
if high technologies make it possible to transfer intelligence from one person to another, what would happen?
3. Tens of years ago, when CFC was first introduced as an inexpensive and safe substance,
no on e knows it will destroy ozone layer. Can we be so sure of new "Clean" nuclear energy?
But even though I have suspicious about some of his trends, I totally agree with category No.3 and especially
No.4(as I describe above) which is inescapable requirement for many professionals not to mention an architect.
The use of computers, knowledge-based and expert systems will change the profession and will be one of the most
important capabilities to acquire. For "whoever controls or manages the flow of information between and among
the numbers of building team will lead the team." Clearly, architectural practice is changing with advances
in sophisticated technology and simple human communication. Computers are the greatest catalyst of this change,
affecting not only the physical layout of the design studio, but also the ways in which architects work.
Computers outline developments in management software, programs tailored to architects-not accountants-for profit
analysis and bookkeeping; analytical tools for calculating stair heights; and checklists for complying with new ADA codes.
An update on professional liability also reveals the benefits of careful planning and cooperation between
architects and their insurance brokers and clients. Legal headaches can be minimized by risk management strategies,
which also help reduce construction time and costs.
These far-reaching developments should send a strong signal to architects designing the workplaces of the 21st
century: The office of the future has already arrived.
The Shimizu Corporation provides a perfect example of accepting and practicing these new trends.
Predictably of japan, it is the least of all shrinking violets at the future party.
Shimizu corporation established its Space Project Office in April 1987, the first organized effort to advance space
engineering by a Japanese construction company. This simply means that the Japanese egghead dreamers are planning
an incredible range of futuristic options, some of which may even be realized within my modest expectation of life.
Firstly, a space station constructed by robotics. Secondly, and more staggeringly, a 'space hotel' which will be in
operation by the year 2020. The hotel will be the final destination of tours using an 80-seater space plane capable
of horizontal take-off and landing. One of the most promising space projects for the early 21st century is the
construction of a lunar base.
A lunar base would not only contribute considerably to the advance of science but could
also serve as a large-scale facility for the production of oxygen and helium-3. The design system and its architectural
expression relies upon newly developed Japanese concrete technology: The Shimizu solution to the special problems of
hydrating cement in a vacuum involves the use of powdered ice and the radiation energy (such as microwaves) to
crystallize the curing process. So man's first moon architecture is going to come straight off the Japanese engineer's
drawing board, out of the cement works via the Ice Age and a microwave oven. Indeed, as architectural arguments rage
about this, that or the other style, silent engineers in Tokyo are planning the real world of 2051.
The microwaved concrete of Lunar Base 1 which is designed by architects and engineers will have as much to do with
post-modernism or deconstructivism as its space transport with today's in-vogue Maserati.
Being an architect means choosing to be realistic. Being realistic means adjusting yourself to a new horizon even though,
it puzzles your eyes and makes you feel you're far away. Rapidly changing situations of the new era leave an architect
no choice but to plunge into the battle of survival. An architect should consider his potentials, limitations given
situations and relationship of all three before he set off to work. He should be a chameleon in the forest of buildings.
If the environment around him changes, he changes too. Because no matter how far we have gone up the ladder of
development and evolution, in one sense, it is now evident that we're going back to the primitive age when nature
and we followed the same rule ; Only the strongest survives.
But an architect should never forget one thing ; He is the one who reserves and recreates this world in terms of
esthetics and pragmatism. He should make the space we use more practically segmented, beautiful, and highly technical
trying not to destroy the balance with the environment. Therefore, in 21st century,
an architect should correct once deformed environment and harmonized the artificial construction with the nature.
The new age architect has to responsibility: one as a benefactor of human lives, the other as an environment-keeper.
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